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Beryl Makes a Comeback as a Sub-Tropical Storm

Beryl Degenerates But Could Reform; Dominica Government Lifts State Of Emergency

Just as forecasters predicted could happen, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl that had threatened the Eastern Caribbean last week have re-emerged, although the system is not expected to be around for long.

Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl developed yesterday afternoon, about 290 miles north of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds near 40 miles per hour.

By Sunday morning at 5 o’clock, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami said Beryl was located 415 miles north of Bermuda and was crawling toward the northeast at just about three miles per hour, with a gradual increase in forward speed expected toward the northeast or north-northeast through tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 miles per hour, and little change in strength is forecast today.

“Beryl should begin to weaken by this evening when it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system late tonight or early Monday,” the NHC said.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

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Dominica Under Hurricane Watch as Beryl Heads Towards Lesser Antilles

Beryl has degenerated but could possibly become a storm as it approaches the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami has indicated.

Beryl reached hurricane status on Friday, but by Saturday it was a tropical storm and by last night it had degenerated further, although its remnants are still producing heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the northern Leeward Islands.

However, the NHC said this morning that this might not be the end of Beryl.

“The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the day, and over Hispaniola in the nigh. Unfavourable upper-level winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the next day or two, but environmental conditions could become somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the Bahamas and the western Atlantic,” it said.

There is a 40 per cent chance that regeneration could happen over the next five days.

Meantime, the state of emergency and curfew implemented in Dominica yesterday evening, ahead of a potential impact by Beryl, was discontinued this morning.

It said that based on the 11 p.m. advisory issued last night by the National Hurricane Centre, which lifted the tropical storm watch on Dominica, the all-clear was given at 6 a.m.

“As such, and after consultation with the Chief of Police, the State of Emergency and the curfew imposed for the safety and security of all citizens and property are lifted…Normal business activities should recommence today,” a statement from the Cabinet office said.

The third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season which runs June 1 to September 30, has also formed.

Chris is meandering well off the coast of the Carolinas in the US, and expected to reach hurricane strength later today. The NHC said swells generated by the storm are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days.

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The Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Next Storm Could Develop off Bermuda

A hurricane watch has been issued for Dominica while four French Caribbean territories are under tropical storm watch, as an unpredictable Hurricane Beryl continues on a path towards the Lesser Antilles.

The government of France issued the watch for Martinique, Guadeloupe, St Martin, and St Barthelemy this evening.

But the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) noted that given larger-than-normal uncertainties associated with Beryl’s future track and intensity, the governments and meteorological services of several of the countries in the Lesser Antilles chose to issue tropical storm or hurricane watches sooner than the typical 48-hour threshold for the onset of tropical storm-force winds.

At 8 p.m., Hurricane Beryl, carrying maximum sustained winds near 80 miles per hour, was about 925 miles east southeast of the Lesser Antilles and moving towards the west at 15 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said a faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week.

“On the forecast track, the centre of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday,” the NHC advisory stated.

“Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.  Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea.”

However, the NHC stressed that the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain given Beryl’s small size.

“The cyclone could just as easily dissipate into an open wave sooner than indicated in the official forecast,” it said.

Beryl’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles.

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) says that in anticipation of a potential impact from Hurricane Beryl, it has activated its Regional Coordination Plan (RCP) and the CDEMA Coordinating Unit is undertaking preparatory actions.

Meanwhile, the area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast has developed into a tropical depression.

The NHC said that given that the system is moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment, gradual strengthening is indicated, and the NHC forecast shows Tropical Depression 3 becoming a tropical storm on Saturday.

It said additional intensification could occur by the end of the forecast period when the cyclone moves northeastward away from the US coast and interacts with a mid-level trough.

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A tropical depression, or even Tropical Storm Beryl, could develop in the next few days between Bermuda and the United States, according to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami.

Forecasters are watching a trough of low pressure that is bringing with it disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a few hundred miles to the south of Bermuda.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States,” the NHC said.

But it added that the system is forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.

Even so, it has given the system a medium chance of developing further.

It put the odds of formation through the next two days at 40 per cent, and increased that to 60 per cent over a five-day period.

There is also some other activity elsewhere in the Atlantic.

A second tropical wave has developed in the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, off Africa’s west coast.

This morning, it was moving to the west at 10 to 15 miles per hour and the NHC said it had a 30 per cent chance of developing more over the next two to five days.

However, it added that upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.

It has been a quiet season so far, with no storm activity since Subtropical Storm Alberto formed in May, ahead of the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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